Election Results and Looking Ahead

Election Snapshot
Although the final results are not all in, the 2006 midterm elections had a profound impact on the political landscape on Capitol Hill. As predicted, the Democrats are now in control of the U.S. House of Representatives. To gain a majority, Democrats needed to have a net gain of 15 Republican seats. As of right now, the Democrats have picked up 28 Republican seats, with ten races still undecided. That puts the House at 229 Democrats to 196 Republicans. Giving the Democrats, and Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), control of the house for the first time sine 1994.

One of those 196 Republican seats is still in question though. In Florida’s 13th district, Republican Vern Buchanan appears to have beaten Democrat Christine Jennings by 373 votes. Although Democratic lawyers are attempting to force another recount, Buchanan has stated his intention to be in Washington, D.C. on Monday for new member orientation.

Regarding the other 10 seats in question, Louisiana’s 2nd district, and Texas’ 23rd district will have to wait until run off elections in December to declare a winner. In Louisiana, Rep. William Jefferson (D) led the twelve other candidates in the single ballot election with 30% of the votes. However, Louisiana law requires the winner to have a clear majority, so Jefferson will have to race in a run off election with Democrat Karen Carter, who received 22% of the vote. Regardless of the outcome, the seat will stay in Democratic hands.

In Texas, incumbent Henry Bonilla (R) finished ahead of the pack on the single ballot with 48% of the vote. Bonilla has to face former Congressmen Ciro Rodriguez (D), who received 20% of the general vote, in the December Runoff. The strong Hispanic population in the 23rd district may prove too much for Bonilla to overcome now that Rodriguez is the only Democrat on the ballot.

Of the remaining eight races, seven incumbents, five Republicans and two Democrats, are leading in the polls. However, in Connecticut’s 2nd Congressional district, Democratic challenger Joseph Courtney is leading Republic incumbent Rob Simmons by 170 votes. As close as the races are, we can expect a lot of recounts across the country, leaving official results unavailable until late November or early December. If the numbers stay as they are, the Democrats will have gained a total of 29 Republican seats making it 232 Democrats to 203 Republicans. However, the run off election in Texas may show yet another shit, making it a 233-202 Democrat majority, giving the Democrats a gain of 30 Republican seats.

In the Senate, the Democrats needed a net gain of 6 seats, and that is exactly what they got. The Democrats now have a 51-49 majority for the first time in 12 years. The six seats the Republicans lost were Pennsylvania (Rick Santorum), Rhode Island (Lincoln Chafee), Ohio (Mike DeWine), Missouri (Jim Talent), Montana (Conrad Burns), and Virginia (George Allen). Virginia was the last race in the Senate to declare a winner. On Thursday, Republican George Allen conceded to Democrat Jim Webb, a former Secretary of the Navy.

Democrats now have a majority over both Houses of Congress. With a Republican President who has two years left in office, history says we will see two years of gridlock, until both parties attempt to retain or gain control of both the Executive and the Legislature. President Bush has met with soon to be Speaker Pelosi and the next Senate majority leader Harry Reid (D-NV). Both sides are promising to work in a bipartisan fashion for the good of the country. Time will tell if this honeymoon can last for at least two years.

Leadership Changes
The political shift in Congress brings a shift in leadership for the 110th Congress. Current House minority leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has already been named the next Speaker of the House, replacing Dennis Hastert (R-IL) as the top House official. Current minority whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) is already facing competition to become the new House majority leader in Rep. John Murtha (D-PA). Murtha had stated his intention to challenge Hoyer earlier this year, but backed down when party leaders thought it was to early to begin dividing party loyalties. Now that the elections are over, Murtha has restarted his leadership campaign. Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) might challenge Caucus Chairman James E. Clyburn (D-SC) for the No. 3 job of majority whip. If Emmanuel decides not to run, Rep. Diana DeGette (D-CO) may enter the race.

For the Republicans, Hastert has stated his intention not to vie for the minority leader position. Current House majority leader John Boehner (R-OH) appears to already have challengers to lead the GOP in the 110th Congress. Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) stated his intention to run for the minority leader position in January and Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) has also expressed interest in running. John Shadegg (R-AZ) intends to run for the Republican whip, against the current majority whip Roy Blunt (R-MO), who lost his bid for majority leader to Boehner last winter.

In the Senate, Harry Reid (D-NV) will continue his leadership role as the majority leader in the 110th Congress. Dick Durbin will continue as Democratic whip. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the current majority whip is expected to run for the GOP Leadership position, to replace outgoing leader Bill Frist (R-TN), who did not seek reelection this year.

The current ranking member in the House Committee on Education and the Workforce, George Miller (D-CA), will replace Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon (R-CA) as chairman of the committee. In the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP), Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA), the current ranking member on the Committee, will likely take over as the new Committee Chairman. As for the subcommittees, leadership meeting are being held next week, so we do not expect to hear much new before then.

Political Shifts in the New Congress
The 110th Congress is looking much more centered then previous Congresses. In the House, the election of candidates like Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) and former NFL Quarterback Heath Shuler (D-NC) show that voters were looking for much more moderate candidates.

Ellsworth has been described as a “conservative democrat,” who favors gun rights, supports enforcement-oriented immigration reform, opposes abortion rights and is against setting a withdrawal date from Iraq. But he also favors allowing prescription drug re-importation from Canada, backs implementing all recommendations of the Sept. 11 Commission, and opposes allowing private investment of Social Security funds.

Shuler, a devout Christian, is more conservative than the average Democrat. He opposes abortion rights and gun control, and he plans to fight for balanced budgets. He believes, however, in the power of an active government and plans to push for greater funding for children's health care and for research into alternative energy sources. It will be interesting to see how more “conservative” democrats interact with the more liberal party leaders such as Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Steny Hoyer (D-MD).

In the Senate, perhaps the most telling sign that voters are looking for more moderate representation comes in the reelection of Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT). Lieberman was defeated in the Democratic primaries because of his choice to stand with the President in regards to the war in Iraq. Connecticut Democrats tried to paint Lieberman, who ran as an Independent candidate, as too conservative and too willing to compromise with the Administration.

Those aspects of his voting record are what got him reelected, mainly by Connecticut Republicans and Independents. Lieberman has stated his intention to caucus with the Democrats, but considering 23% of his voters were Republicans, it is likely he will toe the line as often as possible, so as to not alienate his conservative supporters. With relations strained from a lack of support in the elections, it is important that the new majority leaders not alienate Lieberman, especially if they wish to keep him caucusing with their side.
Also in the Senate, incoming Senators like Jim Webb (D-VA), Jon Tester (D-MT), and Bob Casey (D-PA) are all considered much more moderate then the senior Senators like Reid, Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Charles Schumer (D-NY). With such a close majority in the Senate (51-49), it is imperative for the Democratic leaders to keep the moderate freshmen in line if they want to use that majority to their advantage.