2006 Elections

I. The Balance of Power

Thirty-four specific races for seats in the House and nine races in the Senate will determine the control of Congress. The Democratic Party needs to win an additional 15 seats to take control of the House and 6 seats in the Senate. Of the key races, many are too close to call but most lean toward the Democrats.

The sense in Washington, DC is that the Democrats will end up with the necessary victories to take control of the House and possibly the Senate. Lobbying firms and interest groups have long begun the process of hiring new Democratic staff and cementing ties to Democratic leaders in anticipation of the power-shift. Republican staffers have been working on their resumes and revisiting former employer contacts. However, if history has taught us anything, it is that anything can happen on Election Day. After the election, we will provide a memo that analyzes the outcome and considers the implication of those results on education policy and legislation.

II. The Latest Snapshot

The USA Today/Gallup poll released their final polls before the midterm elections this weekend. When asked: “If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district?” respondents favored a Democratic candidate over a Republican candidate 51% to 44%. That gap, however, is down 6 points from last month and down 16 percentage points from two weeks before that. This declining GOP gap is consistent among most recent polls, but it is also consistent across most elections as Election Day nears.

In the House, Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats if they hope to wrestle control away from the Republicans. Of the 35 most hotly contested races, three races are leaning Republican, 12 are leaning Democrat, while 20 are a statistical toss up, and are too close to call. In the Senate, Democrats need to net a gain of six seats in order take control from the Republicans. Thirty-three seats are up for reelection, with nine seats seen as key races. Of those nine seats, five are leaning Democrat while four of them are virtual toss-ups.

There are many tight races to monitor on the House side. According to the National Journal, the most hotly contested races include Arizona’s 8th district where Randy Graf (R) and Gabrielle Giffords (D) are locked in a dead heat race. In Pennsylvania, Curt Weldon (R) seeks to extend his 20-year Congressional career, but faces strong opposition from Joe Sestak (D). As in many of these House races, the Republicans are trying to make the issues local, but the national backlash against entrenched GOP power makes this hard to do. Many local campaigns simply identify the Republican candidate with the number of deaths of U.S. Troops in Iraq, with President Bush or with disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff and the likes of former Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-CA) and former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX).

On the Senate side, the two races that are drawing national attention are in Virginia and Tennessee. In Virginia, incumbent George Allen (R) is currently suffering from his close ties to President Bush and the White House agenda. His opponent, former Navy Secretary Jim Webb (D) has made the election about supporting the Administration, which seriously works to his advantage, since the President’s approval rating is currently between 35-37%. Gallup showed Sen. Allen ahead of Webb 49% to 46%, while Mason-Dixon had Webb in the lead 46% to 45%.

In Tennessee, current Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R) is leaving his seat in order to run for the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination and Rep. Harold Ford (D) is running against Bob Corker (R), the former Mayor of Chattanooga to fill the gap. That race has become decidedly nasty, with attacks from both sides on each candidates ethical, moral, as well as political background. Gallup gave Corker a slim 49% to 46% margin over Rep. Ford, while in the Mason-Dixon survey Corker enjoyed a much wider 50% to 38% lead. If the current Majority Leader’s seat changes party hands, it will provide a devastating blow to the majority party.

The Democrat and Republican focus on the last day is to make sure that registered voters get to the polls. Both parties have initiated intense campaigns on their voters to try to ensure a victory at the polls. Democrats are reassuring their voters that the shrinking margin of victory is only a sign of a few more Republican voters offering their opinions, while the Republicans are trying to convince their voters that they will continue to make up lost ground and will continue to control Congress.

III. After The Elections

If you go by the polling data it appears that the 110th Congress will be split – a Republican Senate and a Democratic House. This creates a big problem for the Bush Administration, who was having trouble this year working with a Congress controlled by his own party. His chance of getting anything passed through a divided Congress seems less likely, which raises questions about the reauthorization of the No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB).

NCLB is scheduled to be reauthorized in 2007, but Democrats will not likely allow a Republican victory on NCLB prior to the 2008 Presidential elections. At the same time, Republicans may not wish to compromise with a Democratic House Majority before the 2008 Presidential election and, therefore, may hold off until after the 2008 election. That, however, is a question that can wait until Wednesday, when the political landscape for the next Congress is clearer.