Election Snapshot
Although the final results are not all in, the 2006 midterm elections had a profound impact on the political landscape on Capitol Hill. As predicted, the Democrats are now in control of the U.S. House of Representatives. To gain a majority, Democrats needed to have a net gain of 15 Republican seats. As of right now, the Democrats have picked up 28 Republican seats, with ten races still undecided. That puts the House at 229 Democrats to 196 Republicans. Giving the Democrats, and Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), control of the house for the first time sine 1994.
One of those 196 Republican seats is still in question though. In Florida’s 13th district, Republican Vern Buchanan appears to have beaten Democrat Christine Jennings by 373 votes. Although Democratic lawyers are attempting to force another recount, Buchanan has stated his intention to be in Washington, D.C. on Monday for new member orientation.
Regarding the other 10 seats in question, Louisiana’s 2nd district, and Texas’ 23rd district will have to wait until run off elections in December to declare a winner. In Louisiana, Rep. William Jefferson (D) led the twelve other candidates in the single ballot election with 30% of the votes. However, Louisiana law requires the winner to have a clear majority, so Jefferson will have to race in a run off election with Democrat Karen Carter, who received 22% of the vote. Regardless of the outcome, the seat will stay in Democratic hands.
In Texas, incumbent Henry Bonilla (R) finished ahead of the pack on the single ballot with 48% of the vote. Bonilla has to face former Congressmen Ciro Rodriguez (D), who received 20% of the general vote, in the December Runoff. The strong Hispanic population in the 23rd district may prove too much for Bonilla to overcome now that Rodriguez is the only Democrat on the ballot.
Of the remaining eight races, seven incumbents, five Republicans and two Democrats, are leading in the polls. However, in Connecticut’s 2nd Congressional district, Democratic challenger Joseph Courtney is leading Republic incumbent Rob Simmons by 170 votes. As close as the races are, we can expect a lot of recounts across the country, leaving official results unavailable until late November or early December. If the numbers stay as they are, the Democrats will have gained a total of 29 Republican seats making it 232 Democrats to 203 Republicans. However, the run off election in Texas may show yet another shit, making it a 233-202 Democrat majority, giving the Democrats a gain of 30 Republican seats.
In the Senate, the Democrats needed a net gain of 6 seats, and that is exactly what they got. The Democrats now have a 51-49 majority for the first time in 12 years. The six seats the Republicans lost were Pennsylvania (Rick Santorum), Rhode Island (Lincoln Chafee), Ohio (Mike DeWine), Missouri (Jim Talent), Montana (Conrad Burns), and Virginia (George Allen). Virginia was the last race in the Senate to declare a winner. On Thursday, Republican George Allen conceded to Democrat Jim Webb, a former Secretary of the Navy.
Democrats now have a majority over both Houses of Congress. With a Republican President who has two years left in office, history says we will see two years of gridlock, until both parties attempt to retain or gain control of both the Executive and the Legislature. President Bush has met with soon to be Speaker Pelosi and the next Senate majority leader Harry Reid (D-NV). Both sides are promising to work in a bipartisan fashion for the good of the country. Time will tell if this honeymoon can last for at least two years.
Leadership Changes
The political shift in Congress brings a shift in leadership for the 110th Congress. Current House minority leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has already been named the next Speaker of the House, replacing Dennis Hastert (R-IL) as the top House official. Current minority whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) is already facing competition to become the new House majority leader in Rep. John Murtha (D-PA). Murtha had stated his intention to challenge Hoyer earlier this year, but backed down when party leaders thought it was to early to begin dividing party loyalties. Now that the elections are over, Murtha has restarted his leadership campaign. Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) might challenge Caucus Chairman James E. Clyburn (D-SC) for the No. 3 job of majority whip. If Emmanuel decides not to run, Rep. Diana DeGette (D-CO) may enter the race.
For the Republicans, Hastert has stated his intention not to vie for the minority leader position. Current House majority leader John Boehner (R-OH) appears to already have challengers to lead the GOP in the 110th Congress. Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) stated his intention to run for the minority leader position in January and Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) has also expressed interest in running. John Shadegg (R-AZ) intends to run for the Republican whip, against the current majority whip Roy Blunt (R-MO), who lost his bid for majority leader to Boehner last winter.
In the Senate, Harry Reid (D-NV) will continue his leadership role as the majority leader in the 110th Congress. Dick Durbin will continue as Democratic whip. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the current majority whip is expected to run for the GOP Leadership position, to replace outgoing leader Bill Frist (R-TN), who did not seek reelection this year.
The current ranking member in the House Committee on Education and the Workforce, George Miller (D-CA), will replace Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon (R-CA) as chairman of the committee. In the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP), Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA), the current ranking member on the Committee, will likely take over as the new Committee Chairman. As for the subcommittees, leadership meeting are being held next week, so we do not expect to hear much new before then.
Political Shifts in the New Congress
The 110th Congress is looking much more centered then previous Congresses. In the House, the election of candidates like Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) and former NFL Quarterback Heath Shuler (D-NC) show that voters were looking for much more moderate candidates.
Ellsworth has been described as a “conservative democrat,” who favors gun rights, supports enforcement-oriented immigration reform, opposes abortion rights and is against setting a withdrawal date from Iraq. But he also favors allowing prescription drug re-importation from Canada, backs implementing all recommendations of the Sept. 11 Commission, and opposes allowing private investment of Social Security funds.
Shuler, a devout Christian, is more conservative than the average Democrat. He opposes abortion rights and gun control, and he plans to fight for balanced budgets. He believes, however, in the power of an active government and plans to push for greater funding for children's health care and for research into alternative energy sources. It will be interesting to see how more “conservative” democrats interact with the more liberal party leaders such as Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Steny Hoyer (D-MD).
In the Senate, perhaps the most telling sign that voters are looking for more moderate representation comes in the reelection of Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT). Lieberman was defeated in the Democratic primaries because of his choice to stand with the President in regards to the war in Iraq. Connecticut Democrats tried to paint Lieberman, who ran as an Independent candidate, as too conservative and too willing to compromise with the Administration.
Those aspects of his voting record are what got him reelected, mainly by Connecticut Republicans and Independents. Lieberman has stated his intention to caucus with the Democrats, but considering 23% of his voters were Republicans, it is likely he will toe the line as often as possible, so as to not alienate his conservative supporters. With relations strained from a lack of support in the elections, it is important that the new majority leaders not alienate Lieberman, especially if they wish to keep him caucusing with their side.
Also in the Senate, incoming Senators like Jim Webb (D-VA), Jon Tester (D-MT), and Bob Casey (D-PA) are all considered much more moderate then the senior Senators like Reid, Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Charles Schumer (D-NY). With such a close majority in the Senate (51-49), it is imperative for the Democratic leaders to keep the moderate freshmen in line if they want to use that majority to their advantage.
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
2006 Elections
I. The Balance of Power
Thirty-four specific races for seats in the House and nine races in the Senate will determine the control of Congress. The Democratic Party needs to win an additional 15 seats to take control of the House and 6 seats in the Senate. Of the key races, many are too close to call but most lean toward the Democrats.
The sense in Washington, DC is that the Democrats will end up with the necessary victories to take control of the House and possibly the Senate. Lobbying firms and interest groups have long begun the process of hiring new Democratic staff and cementing ties to Democratic leaders in anticipation of the power-shift. Republican staffers have been working on their resumes and revisiting former employer contacts. However, if history has taught us anything, it is that anything can happen on Election Day. After the election, we will provide a memo that analyzes the outcome and considers the implication of those results on education policy and legislation.
II. The Latest Snapshot
The USA Today/Gallup poll released their final polls before the midterm elections this weekend. When asked: “If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district?” respondents favored a Democratic candidate over a Republican candidate 51% to 44%. That gap, however, is down 6 points from last month and down 16 percentage points from two weeks before that. This declining GOP gap is consistent among most recent polls, but it is also consistent across most elections as Election Day nears.
In the House, Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats if they hope to wrestle control away from the Republicans. Of the 35 most hotly contested races, three races are leaning Republican, 12 are leaning Democrat, while 20 are a statistical toss up, and are too close to call. In the Senate, Democrats need to net a gain of six seats in order take control from the Republicans. Thirty-three seats are up for reelection, with nine seats seen as key races. Of those nine seats, five are leaning Democrat while four of them are virtual toss-ups.
There are many tight races to monitor on the House side. According to the National Journal, the most hotly contested races include Arizona’s 8th district where Randy Graf (R) and Gabrielle Giffords (D) are locked in a dead heat race. In Pennsylvania, Curt Weldon (R) seeks to extend his 20-year Congressional career, but faces strong opposition from Joe Sestak (D). As in many of these House races, the Republicans are trying to make the issues local, but the national backlash against entrenched GOP power makes this hard to do. Many local campaigns simply identify the Republican candidate with the number of deaths of U.S. Troops in Iraq, with President Bush or with disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff and the likes of former Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-CA) and former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX).
On the Senate side, the two races that are drawing national attention are in Virginia and Tennessee. In Virginia, incumbent George Allen (R) is currently suffering from his close ties to President Bush and the White House agenda. His opponent, former Navy Secretary Jim Webb (D) has made the election about supporting the Administration, which seriously works to his advantage, since the President’s approval rating is currently between 35-37%. Gallup showed Sen. Allen ahead of Webb 49% to 46%, while Mason-Dixon had Webb in the lead 46% to 45%.
In Tennessee, current Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R) is leaving his seat in order to run for the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination and Rep. Harold Ford (D) is running against Bob Corker (R), the former Mayor of Chattanooga to fill the gap. That race has become decidedly nasty, with attacks from both sides on each candidates ethical, moral, as well as political background. Gallup gave Corker a slim 49% to 46% margin over Rep. Ford, while in the Mason-Dixon survey Corker enjoyed a much wider 50% to 38% lead. If the current Majority Leader’s seat changes party hands, it will provide a devastating blow to the majority party.
The Democrat and Republican focus on the last day is to make sure that registered voters get to the polls. Both parties have initiated intense campaigns on their voters to try to ensure a victory at the polls. Democrats are reassuring their voters that the shrinking margin of victory is only a sign of a few more Republican voters offering their opinions, while the Republicans are trying to convince their voters that they will continue to make up lost ground and will continue to control Congress.
III. After The Elections
If you go by the polling data it appears that the 110th Congress will be split – a Republican Senate and a Democratic House. This creates a big problem for the Bush Administration, who was having trouble this year working with a Congress controlled by his own party. His chance of getting anything passed through a divided Congress seems less likely, which raises questions about the reauthorization of the No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB).
NCLB is scheduled to be reauthorized in 2007, but Democrats will not likely allow a Republican victory on NCLB prior to the 2008 Presidential elections. At the same time, Republicans may not wish to compromise with a Democratic House Majority before the 2008 Presidential election and, therefore, may hold off until after the 2008 election. That, however, is a question that can wait until Wednesday, when the political landscape for the next Congress is clearer.
Thirty-four specific races for seats in the House and nine races in the Senate will determine the control of Congress. The Democratic Party needs to win an additional 15 seats to take control of the House and 6 seats in the Senate. Of the key races, many are too close to call but most lean toward the Democrats.
The sense in Washington, DC is that the Democrats will end up with the necessary victories to take control of the House and possibly the Senate. Lobbying firms and interest groups have long begun the process of hiring new Democratic staff and cementing ties to Democratic leaders in anticipation of the power-shift. Republican staffers have been working on their resumes and revisiting former employer contacts. However, if history has taught us anything, it is that anything can happen on Election Day. After the election, we will provide a memo that analyzes the outcome and considers the implication of those results on education policy and legislation.
II. The Latest Snapshot
The USA Today/Gallup poll released their final polls before the midterm elections this weekend. When asked: “If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district?” respondents favored a Democratic candidate over a Republican candidate 51% to 44%. That gap, however, is down 6 points from last month and down 16 percentage points from two weeks before that. This declining GOP gap is consistent among most recent polls, but it is also consistent across most elections as Election Day nears.
In the House, Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats if they hope to wrestle control away from the Republicans. Of the 35 most hotly contested races, three races are leaning Republican, 12 are leaning Democrat, while 20 are a statistical toss up, and are too close to call. In the Senate, Democrats need to net a gain of six seats in order take control from the Republicans. Thirty-three seats are up for reelection, with nine seats seen as key races. Of those nine seats, five are leaning Democrat while four of them are virtual toss-ups.
There are many tight races to monitor on the House side. According to the National Journal, the most hotly contested races include Arizona’s 8th district where Randy Graf (R) and Gabrielle Giffords (D) are locked in a dead heat race. In Pennsylvania, Curt Weldon (R) seeks to extend his 20-year Congressional career, but faces strong opposition from Joe Sestak (D). As in many of these House races, the Republicans are trying to make the issues local, but the national backlash against entrenched GOP power makes this hard to do. Many local campaigns simply identify the Republican candidate with the number of deaths of U.S. Troops in Iraq, with President Bush or with disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff and the likes of former Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-CA) and former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX).
On the Senate side, the two races that are drawing national attention are in Virginia and Tennessee. In Virginia, incumbent George Allen (R) is currently suffering from his close ties to President Bush and the White House agenda. His opponent, former Navy Secretary Jim Webb (D) has made the election about supporting the Administration, which seriously works to his advantage, since the President’s approval rating is currently between 35-37%. Gallup showed Sen. Allen ahead of Webb 49% to 46%, while Mason-Dixon had Webb in the lead 46% to 45%.
In Tennessee, current Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R) is leaving his seat in order to run for the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination and Rep. Harold Ford (D) is running against Bob Corker (R), the former Mayor of Chattanooga to fill the gap. That race has become decidedly nasty, with attacks from both sides on each candidates ethical, moral, as well as political background. Gallup gave Corker a slim 49% to 46% margin over Rep. Ford, while in the Mason-Dixon survey Corker enjoyed a much wider 50% to 38% lead. If the current Majority Leader’s seat changes party hands, it will provide a devastating blow to the majority party.
The Democrat and Republican focus on the last day is to make sure that registered voters get to the polls. Both parties have initiated intense campaigns on their voters to try to ensure a victory at the polls. Democrats are reassuring their voters that the shrinking margin of victory is only a sign of a few more Republican voters offering their opinions, while the Republicans are trying to convince their voters that they will continue to make up lost ground and will continue to control Congress.
III. After The Elections
If you go by the polling data it appears that the 110th Congress will be split – a Republican Senate and a Democratic House. This creates a big problem for the Bush Administration, who was having trouble this year working with a Congress controlled by his own party. His chance of getting anything passed through a divided Congress seems less likely, which raises questions about the reauthorization of the No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB).
NCLB is scheduled to be reauthorized in 2007, but Democrats will not likely allow a Republican victory on NCLB prior to the 2008 Presidential elections. At the same time, Republicans may not wish to compromise with a Democratic House Majority before the 2008 Presidential election and, therefore, may hold off until after the 2008 election. That, however, is a question that can wait until Wednesday, when the political landscape for the next Congress is clearer.
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