Okay, so here is my prediction for the World Series. If the Tigers do not win in 6 games, the Cardinals will win in 7. My heart says the Cards can win in 5, sweeping the Tigers for all three games in St. Louis, but my head almost always outweighs whatever my heart thinks. Looking at it by the numbers, if Carpenter and Suppan win games 3 and 4 respectively, I see it as the Cardinals in 7. Keep in mind, I know anything can happen in the Fall Classic. The Cards could lose all three at home too, no one ever really knows. I have based my prediction off of the numbers and past performances. Here is my reasoning.
Game 3: Nate Robertson @ Chris Carpenter. Robertson is 1-1 in the Postseason with a 5.91 ERA. Robertson has started both of his post season games on the road. losing in New York, but working out of tough spots to win in Oakland. During the regular season, Robertson was 13-13, 3.84 ERA and 137 strikeouts. At the same time, Chris Carpenter is 2-1 this postseason with a 3.70 ERA. Carpenter has won 6 of his 7 career postseason starts, though this will be his first World Series appearance, since he was injured when the Cardinals went to the Series in 2004. During the regular season, Carpenter went 15-8 with a 3.09 ERA (3rd in MLB) and 184 strikeouts (tied for 9th in MLB). Taking all this into consideration, the Cardinals have the pitching advantage. Add in the fact that the game is in Busch Stadium, and the Cardinals should be able to take a 2-1 Series lead.
Game 4: Jeremy Bonderman @ Jeff Suppan. Bonderman is 1-0 in the postseaon with a 3.08 ERA. In the regular season, he was 14-8 with a 4.08 ERA. All of this looks good, but both starts Bonderman has made this postseaon have been in Detroit. Bonderman has never pitched in the New Busch Stadium. He is also 0 for 19 at the plate in his career. Jeff Suppan is 2-1 this postseason with a 1.86 ERA. In the regular season, Suppan was 12-7, with a 4.12 ERA. The most important stat is that Suppan only lost two games in Busch Stadium all year. Suppan, MVP of the League Championship Series is coming off an amazing outing to win Game 7 of the NLCS, and he hit his first career home run in Game 3 of the NLCS. The two pitchers are pretty evenly matched, but Suppan is the one with all the momentum, and the extra edge of playing at home. The Cardinals should take a 3-1 Series lead.
Game 5 will likely have a repeat match of Game 1: Justin Verlander @ Anthony Reyes. Verlander was 1-0 this postseason coming into the Series, with a 5.91 ERA. He lost Game 1 of the Series, giving up 7 runs (6 earned runs). During the regular season, Verlander went 17-9, with a 3.63 ERA. In all likelihood, Verlander will end up getting the AL Rookie of the Year award for his performance this year. Reyes had a less then stellar record leading into the Series. He only pitched one game this postseason, receiving a no-decision, giving up 2 runs in 4 innings, giving himself a 4.50 ERA. During the regular season, Reyes went 5-8 with a 5.06 ERA. These numbers definitely give the advantage to Verlander, but Reyes is coming off of a beautiful start in Game 1, where he went 8 innings, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits with 4 strikeouts. Reyes has the momentum, and the Cardinals should be able to keep their team momentum going to win the Series 4-1. However, I believe Verlander will return to form and the Tigers will get one game back on the Cards, bringing the series to 3-2. This game could go either way, but I think the advantage is with the Tigers.
Game 6: Likely Starters: Jeff Weaver @ Kenny Rogers . Weaver was 2-1 in the postseason with a 2.16 ERA coming into the Series. He went 5 innings letting up 3 runs on 9 hits. Starting the season in Anaheim. Weaver went 8-14 with a 5.76 ERA this year (5-4 as a Cardinal). Roger is now 3-0 this postseason with a 0.00 ERA. In Game 2, he pitched 8 shutout innings giving up only two hits. During the regular season, Rogers was 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA. Prior to this season, neither Weaver nor Rogers had good postseason stats, but both have pitched solid innings in this postseason, though Rogers has the advantage. The numbers say Rogers will pull out another win. However, it is a distinct possibility that we will see a classic Rogers postseason Blunder, allowing the Cardinals to win the series 4-2. However, I think that Weaver will have his worst outing of the postseason, letting up at least two more runs then Rogers. Tigers force a Game 7.
Game 7: probable Starters: Chris Carpenter @ Nate Robertson. I have already given the stats for these two. But this is what it comes down to. The Reigning NL Cy Young Award winner and the Cardinals' Ace vs. Nate Robertson who went 13-13 in the regular season. Pitching advantage goes to the Cardinals, who win Game 7 in Detroit, winning their 10th World Series Championship, and their first since 1982. Go Cardinals!!!!